Thursday, August 18, 2011

Warming alarmism

Posted on Thu, Aug 18, 2011 at 4:00 AM

A recent Independent article (see “Orient express,” July 28, 2011) featured some climate change alarmism by UM professor Steve Running in which he actually uses the metaphor “tipping point,” which supposedly will lead to runaway global warming. This antiquated notion is just another scare tactic used by alarmists and has no scientific basis.

A new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing reports that NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth’s atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted. The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed. A July 26 University of Alabama press release reports that there is a huge discrepancy between the data and the forecasts that is especially big over the oceans. The NASA satellite data also show that the atmosphere begins shedding heat into space long before United Nations computer models predicted.

The new NASA Terra satellite data, as well as long-term NOAA and NASA data, indicate that atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds are not increasing in the manner predicted by alarmist computer models. The Terra satellite data also support data collected by NASA’s ERBS satellite showing that far more heat escaped into space between 1985 and 1999 than alarmist computer models had predicted. Together, the NASA ERBS and Terra satellite data show that for 25 years and counting, carbon dioxide emissions have directly and indirectly trapped far less heat than alarmist computer models have predicted.

When objective NASA satellite data, reported in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, show a huge discrepancy between alarmist climate models and real-world facts, climate scientists, the media and our elected officials would be wise to take notice. Whether or not they do so will tell us a great deal about how honest the purveyors of global warming alarmism truly are.

CO2, in spite of its increasing presence, still remains just a trace gas in the atmosphere—only about 0.04 percent. Also, natural production of CO2 from sources such as combustion of organic matter, natural decay of vegetation, volcanic emissions, and the natural respiration of all aerobic organisms dwarfs CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning. The U.S. Department of Energy has released estimates that nearly 97 percent of total CO2 emissions would occur even if humans were not present on earth and that, because of the overwhelming presence of water vapor, manmade CO2 causes less than 0.12 percent of earth’s greenhouse effect. To attribute so much power to affect the earth’s climate to such a minuscule amount of CO2 defies common sense. If accumulation of greenhouse gases has any impact on global temperatures, Department of Energy data indicate that nearly 99.9 percent would have to be attributed to natural causes. Nevertheless, alarmists blame approximately 1/1000 of all produced planetary CO2 as the principal cause of climate change, because this provides the only way to link global warming to anthropogenic CO2.

Numerous scientists and climatologists point to the terrible flaw that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change analysis totally ignores the climate impact of solar activity, water vapor, and the effects of cloud formation on global air pressure, temperature, and winds. As Dr. Tim Ball, the climate scientist formerly at the University of Winnipeg, puts it: “The analogy that I use is that my car is not running that well, so I’m going to ignore the engine (which is the sun), and I’m going to ignore the transmission (which is the water vapor) and I’m going to look at one nut on the right rear wheel (which is the human-produced CO2)—the science is that bad!”

Roger Stang

Missoula

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